Food Security and El Niño

At present, many people are becoming uneasy. We are living through strange times, leaving us unsettled.

Our government is asking us ‘to begin preparing for turbulent disruption to our daily way of life.’ Their request is for us all to collect, indeed, stockpile, canned and dried foodstuffs and drinking water. Tin openers are crucial! Are they envisioning cyber warfare and/or extreme weather? The Minister for AI says that a ‘breach of U.K. cyber defences by AI is inevitable, affecting our infrastructureⁱ. The head of MI5 suggests this may be by rogue AI or malicious actors from abroadⁱⁱ.

Our ancestors had to hoard supplies to survive times of famine and extremes. It is just that we have become blasé, used to times of plenty.

Brewing in the Pacific Ocean, we see the strongest El Niño in 150 years. Already the Pacific seawater temperature is 3.05C above average. This natural climate variation, we are told, threatens the world with erratic extremes of flooding and damage to agriculture, with loss of crops or famines. ‘Europe – including the UK – is likely to experience wetter and stormier conditions in the coming autumn and early winter’, it is saidⁱⁱⁱ. On the weather front, we just have to cope. 

Apparently, we may see a ‘polar vortex’ swoop down on us around autumn and winter. Following peaks during El Niño events, the stratospheric Polar Vortex may weaken. At times, that can lead to extremely freezing cold weather suddenly dropping onto us. Indeed, in winter 1987 East Dean was cut off as heavy snow sealed roads until snow ploughs arrived. The A259 was under 7 feet of snow^iv. Woolley socks and sweaters at the ready, methinks.

Crop shortages are developing; the world’s six main food staples are under siege in 54 countries^v. The war in Ukraine has damaged the world’s breadbasket, with spent uranium from rocket tips contaminating soil. None of us wants this; we want to solve this situation rationally, all preferring diplomacy to win out.

Sensible countries will store food for their own people. The true answer, logically, is more local food production. We should not be overanxious, but rather, like Boy Scouts, just be prepared. In WWII, we managed to grow most of our needs, importing wheat from Canada and xylitol from Finland. The UK coped by feeding people using ration coupons. Food was very restricted, but folk survived. ‘Dig for Victory’ was the cry, and people did; 45 million were fed. The 1944-45 UK GDP shows that 48% was paid on defence spending for the war effort, half this country’s total economic output^vi. It makes today’s 3% GDP look paltry. Now there are almost 69.9 million of us to feed and much less fertile land. The political think tank needs to ponder the strength of cultivating a healthy, well-fed population, rather than the malnourished. 

Only a few resilient people in our midst remember the trials of the Second World War. I have memories of 1960s teatimes with Auntie Edith; she produced rusty tins of salmon stored in her cellar since the 1940’s. No sell by dates then!

Not only that prospect chills us. We all know farmers under siege from policies which have done damage to our normal food production, then they have felt the heat of summer ruining many a crop, after a sodden winter. Now they are threatened with cold, wet, stormy autumn weather. Our farmers will save lives; we cherish their knowledge and are rooting for all of them. They need support to work this productive land the way they know how. Our government must support them in order to support us. We are losing precious arable land to solar farms and housing. The Global Economy estimates the UK’s amount of productive arable land stood at only 25% in 2023^vii. (In WWII it was 37%). That has to feed 69.9 million of us. 

Craig Sams, founder of the Whole Earth Food company (supplying Cranks in Covent Garden), was a speaker at a Conference for the Institute for Optimum Nutrition. He held up an apple and asked us to imagine planet Earth. He cut it in half, then into quarters. One quarter he cut in half again and removed the peel, holding it up – “this is the amount of arable land we have on planet Earth to grow food to feed 8 billion people”. Now 8.3 billion. The rest is sea, lakes, rivers, tundra, mountains, deserts, ice or pasture for animal feed. Only 10.7% of Earth’s total landmass is still classed as arable^viii, able to grow temporary crops such as wheat, corn, rice, edible vegetables and fruits. The UK has a total crop-able and arable area of approx. 6.1 million hectares (15,073,428.27 acres)^ix.

Craig grew up in Nebraska; in the 1940s there were 8 metres of topsoil, now reduced by weathering to 18 inches, and it is depleted after intensive farming. Farmers in Wales and the Midlands are saying they may only be able to grow 15 more crops. Some soil quality is so poor now, depleted of vital minerals and trace elements, all so crucial for our health, as well as for plant growth.

We can begin to stockpile tins of meat, fish, vegetables, peas, beans and lentils, soups and dried packets of rice, grains, pulses, polenta, oats, and other protein rich grains. Protein bars, nut butters, dried fruits, fruit cakes, baby food, seeds for herbs and cress to grow on window ledges. Plant some winter crops such as broccoli, sprouts, leeks, parsnips, etc. Some of this food you may need to eat without cooking, they state. Food in your freezer may go off if they are expecting power outages from hacking. Maybe a generator and a communal Larder are called for? Forest Row has one. We will probably all need a nip of Brandy after this happens. 

Not forgetting we may need candles, matches, a torch, batteries, soap, fuel, body wipes, toothbrush and paste, anti-diarrhoea remedies. Probiotics, vitamin C and antioxidant supplements wouldn’t go amiss. Give your teens a battery radio to listen to, then they won’t disintegrate when their phones and iPads fail. And what about toilet paper or cut up newspapers our ancestors had to cope with? First aid kits with a thermometer, a blood pressure monitor (check it stays under 120/80), and all your crucial medicines. Contraceptives and condoms. Repair your bike! Purchase a bicycle repair kit. Last but not least, if you have family pets, don’t leave them out in the cold; they need food, water and possible supplies.

Our ancestors also used to barter – remember? “If I do this for you, could you please do this for me?” Be mindful of protecting yourself and your supplies from others too. Having to even think that is all very disturbing.

I lived in Algiers with Farida’s family at a time when we had water every fourth day! What a to do! Invariably the water flow began 4-5am, maybe for one hour. A silver dish was placed in the shower, tap left on. The rattling woke us all up. We then had to fill water butts in the kitchen and hall – heaven help us. Every saucepan, vase, and bowl was filled with precious water. The toilet was flushed; we washed the stack of laundry; we showered. What this government calls ‘our civic resilience’ was tried, not just strengthened. We are told that the government’s so-called “War Book” is being updated ^x. I am praying that we will not need to use it. The Nordic countries have already sent theirs out. Some people will invest in military hardware. There is money to be made.

How can we cope? Governments used to store food for crises, normally a 14 days supply^xi. This plan was halted in 1990. Now you are expected to store supplies to feed your family for 3 days. After that you are on your own.

“The government talks about food security being National Security, but the politics have alienated food producers”, says James Rebanks, shepherd^xii.

Storing food is one thing. But water! Bottles of water, how much do we need for one week under siege? A roomful? About 4L/4-6 pints per person per day is recommended to be stored for drinking and washing^xiii. Probably stocking a three-day supply for emergency situations would be wise. Our streams and rivers are too polluted. It may also be wise to have some cash to hand as power cuts will stop cash machines from working, as well as tills.

Another opportunity to investigate improving our crucial precious local food supply comes from a town in Lancashire^xiv.

Please investigate -   Incredible-edible-todmorden.co.uk.

It provides a template for the future so that we have a plan for resilience. Todmorden began their project in 2008 and is almost self-sufficient in foods grown locally in public spaces. Anyone can pick the food growing at any time. It provides a massive amount of free produce available for the population. 

We need far more land released for allotments. At present, the UK number of plots has dropped by 60% since the 1950s^xv. It is no wonder that there is a two-year waiting list in many areas. Around 76% of local councils are dividing large plots into smaller half-plots. 

Fresh food and water give us life and health; there is nothing more precious; no amount of gold or diamonds buys a healthy life.

Our community life has plodded on for generations; friendships and comrades have created cohesion. That is our strength: ‘united we stand, divided we fall’, as the saying goes. The strong supporting the vulnerable. All are of equal importance and have skills and knowledge to impart. That is how life evolved, helping one another through hard times. My grandparents’ generation always impressed on me that through World War I and II community was key. People all worked for similar goals, to improve each other’s lives by trying to make their hamlet a safer place. My great-uncles were sent to fight on the Somme. Fred told me about foot rot, fleas, lice, mites in the food, rats trying to eat it. They had seen hell, and he came back and ran a sweet shop (lived to 104); it was a mini version of heaven for us kids. Their generation was stoic, feisty, diligent, with integrity to see things through until the end. To work through these next few months, we may need to take a leaf out of their book. Don’t pass the time, live the time.

Loving your neighbour as yourself can take some doing at times. We can create more cohesive communities in our own areas, which will hopefully see us through whatever is over the horizon. The aim is to come through this episode using camaraderie. Love will out…

“When the sun rises, I go to work

When the sun goes down, I take my rest

I dig the well, from which I drink

I farm the soil that yields my food

I share creation, Kings can do no more”

Anonymous (Chinese, 2500BC)

Dian Shepperson, Trustee of The Institute for Optimum Nutrition